All projectsMarket analysis · Commodity trade
Real project · Work in progress
How much of the market are we missing?
An analytics tool that compares vessel lineup volumes with official customs figures, so a commodity inspection company could see its real market coverage and who to approach next.
20–30%of trade actually covered, on products the client thought it led
- The problem
- A commodity inspection company wanted to cover as many vessels as possible moving in and out of the Netherlands and neighboring countries, but couldn't see how much of the real trade its data captured.
- What I built
- An analytics tool that compares vessel lineup volumes with customs figures by product, country and month, and shows coverage, top shippers and receivers, and the leading countries worldwide.
- My role
- Built it alone, end to end: the analysis logic, the SQL, the charts and the interface.
- Result
- The client learned it covered only about 20–30% of trade in products it thought it led, and used the tool to find growth opportunities and the companies to contact.
- Why it was hard
- Lineup and customs data use different product names, units and dates
- Customs publishes late, so recent months are often missing
- Shipper and receiver names are often not supplied
- Tools
- Python · Plotly · SQL · Snowflake · company data platform API
Invented data
Explore market coverage.
Country names are real; every number is invented.
Compare lineup and customs tonnage for the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany in metric tons (MT), from January to October 2026. Some countries lack the latest 3–4 customs months; shorten the period to compare complete months.
Missing customs figures: Jul 2026, Aug 2026, Sep 2026, Oct 2026. Coverage for the selected period is withheld until every selected month has a customs figure. Customs totals below include complete months only.
Monthly tonnage
Both series use MT on the same scale. The customs line stops where figures are missing; exact values and ratios are below.
▰ Lineup MT━ Customs MT
| Month | Lineup MT | Customs MT | Coverage ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 223,070 | 1,004,600 | 22.2% |
| Feb 2026 | 242,220 | 961,000 | 25.2% |
| Mar 2026 | 298,773 | 1,059,300 | 28.2% |
| Apr 2026 | 347,606 | 1,113,900 | 31.2% |
| May 2026 | 403,418 | 1,179,400 | 34.2% |
| Jun 2026 | 455,020 | 1,223,000 | 37.2% |
| Jul 2026 | 465,418 | — | — |
| Aug 2026 | 518,982 | — | — |
| Sep 2026 | 524,704 | — | — |
| Oct 2026 | 471,010 | — | — |
Top shippers and receivers
Lineup tonnage for Netherlands, imports, and the selected products and months. Each list totals 3,950,221 MT. “Others” combines the remaining named partners; “Not supplied” always stays separate.
Top 5 shippers
Top 5 receivers
World ranking
Selected products and months across all 15 countries, for imports and exports. Shares use invented reported customs tonnage across these countries; the reporting-country filter is a local comparison, not a limit on this world ranking. Select a country to open its history. The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany can also be used as the reporting country.
Top importing countries
Incomplete period: some countries have unpublished months. Totals and world shares cover reported figures only.
| Country | Quantity MT | World share |
|---|---|---|
| Missing: Aug 2026, Sep 2026, Oct 2026 | 16,166,800 | 13.0% |
| 14,437,500 | 11.6% | |
| 13,326,600 | 10.7% | |
| 8,884,500 | 7.2% | |
| 8,884,500 | 7.2% | |
| Rest of worldIncludes unpublished months | 62,324,100 | 50.3% |
Top exporting countries
Incomplete period: some countries have unpublished months. Totals and world shares cover reported figures only.
| Country | Quantity MT | World share |
|---|---|---|
| 15,548,100 | 11.2% | |
| Missing: Aug 2026, Sep 2026, Oct 2026 | 14,627,600 | 10.5% |
| 14,437,500 | 10.4% | |
| 12,216,800 | 8.8% | |
| 12,216,800 | 8.8% | |
| Rest of worldIncludes unpublished months | 69,703,800 | 50.2% |
· 24-month import history
The selected products, ending Oct 2026. This view extends the start month to show 24 months. Gaps mean unpublished customs figures.
Year-over-year change: +5.7%. Latest 12 months versus the preceding 12, using only 8 calendar months reported in both years. Matched totals: 8,556,700 MT versus 8,091,900 MT.
Read the 24 monthly values and comparison pairs
| Month | Quantity MT | Year-over-year pair |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | 916,500 | Included |
| Dec 2024 | 984,800 | Included |
| Jan 2025 | 950,900 | Included |
| Feb 2025 | 909,400 | Included |
| Mar 2025 | 1,002,400 | Included |
| Apr 2025 | 1,054,200 | Included |
| May 2025 | 1,116,100 | Included |
| Jun 2025 | 1,157,600 | Included |
| Jul 2025 | 1,095,400 | Excluded · missing figure |
| Aug 2025 | 1,137,000 | Excluded · missing figure |
| Sep 2025 | 1,074,900 | Excluded · missing figure |
| Oct 2025 | 1,012,800 | Excluded · missing figure |
| Nov 2025 | 971,600 | Included |
| Dec 2025 | 1,043,900 | Included |
| Jan 2026 | 1,004,600 | Included |
| Feb 2026 | 961,000 | Included |
| Mar 2026 | 1,059,300 | Included |
| Apr 2026 | 1,113,900 | Included |
| May 2026 | 1,179,400 | Included |
| Jun 2026 | 1,223,000 | Included |
| Jul 2026 | — | Excluded · missing figure |
| Aug 2026 | — | Excluded · missing figure |
| Sep 2026 | — | Excluded · missing figure |
| Oct 2026 | — | Excluded · missing figure |
What it answers
- How much of a product's trade does the client see, month by month?
- In which months is coverage lowest?
- Who are the top shippers and receivers for that product in that country?
- Which countries lead imports and exports worldwide, and how has each changed over two years?
The analytical decisions
- Coverage = lineup tonnage ÷ customs tonnage, per month.
- Free-text product names grouped into customs HS codes (in one case, 61 names into one product).
- Mixed units converted to metric tons; rows without a usable quantity are counted and shown, not silently dropped.
- Arrival dates used for imports and departure dates for exports, so both sources describe the same trade.
- When customs hasn't published some months, the tool flags an incomplete period instead of showing a misleading overall percentage.
- Year-over-year change compares only months reported in both years.
- Country-by-product concentration, labeled as lineup concentration, not market share.
- Data checks for duplicates, missing partners and quantity problems.
What the client found
Products the client believed it led turned out to be only about 20–30% covered. Instead of a strong position, the tool showed room to grow, and the top shipper and receiver lists showed who to approach.
A second use inside my company
We also use it to judge new lineup sources before buying or scraping them: load the new data, compare it with customs, and see how much of the market it really covers. A built-in Snowflake SQL box lets analysts write their own queries or build them by clicking.
Status
Started in September 2026. Work in progress.
TECHNICAL SURFACE
NEXT SYSTEM / 02
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